Daily metals

This Morning Tin is the standout mover this morning, trading at $54,245 on the three-month, a 2.1% premium to Thursday's close of $53,248 — adding nearly $1,100 overnight. Copper is firmer at $13,622, up 0.8% from Thursday's $13,516 close, while nickel has added 0.6% to $18,840. Zinc is up 1.2% at $3,561 and aluminium edges 0.4% higher to $3,651. Lead is the quietest of the complex, barely changed at $2,007 (+0.1%). The broad-based bid comes despite a strong dollar and elevated oil prices, suggesting underlying physical tightness and speculative positioning are overriding macro headwinds. Macro & Geopolitics The eurozone economy is flashing recession signals. Thursday's flash composite PMI plunged to 47.5 in May from 48.8, the sharpest contraction since October 2023, with services collapsing to 46.4 — the worst reading since early 2021. France was particularly dire at 43.5 composite. Input cost inflation hit a three-and-a-half-year high, deepening the ECB's stagflation dilemma; money markets now price over 80% odds of a rate hike at the next ECB meeting. Across the Atlantic, Kevin Warsh is being sworn in as Fed chair today at the White House, replacing Jerome Powell. Markets price a 60% chance of a Fed rate hike by December. U.S.-Iran peace talks show "some good signs" per Secretary Rubio, but key disagreements over Tehran's uranium stockpile and Strait of Hormuz control persist. Brent crude remains above $100. Base Metals Copper is heading for a broadly flat week, with geopolitics setting the tone as traders weigh mine-side tightness and sulphuric acid shortages against the demand drag from elevated energy costs and inflation. ING's Ewa Manthey noted copper is "struggling to hold on to record-high momentum" without a clear demand catalyst. Aluminium found support from bullish options buying linked to Gulf disruption risks — the region accounts for 8–9% of global output — while LME inventories have drawn down roughly 33% year-to-date to their weakest since October 2022. Nickel slipped on Thursday as Indonesia's Danantara sovereign wealth fund confirmed it will become the sole exporter of ferroalloys from September, though implementation doubts persist. Both S&P and Moody's flagged credit risks from the centralisation plan. Tin's outsized overnight rally extends its run as the tightest market in the complex. Precious Metals Gold is under sustained pressure, trading around $4,525 and heading for a second consecutive weekly loss. The metal has shed more than 14% since the Iran war began in late February, caught in an unusual inverse relationship with oil as energy-driven inflation expectations push rate-hike bets higher. Silver is bucking the trend with a modest weekly gain near $76, while platinum (~$1,955) and palladium (~$1,375) face weekly losses. On palladium, the U.S. Commerce Department issued a final countervailing duty of 109.1% on Russian palladium, following a 132.83% anti-dumping duty in April — a potential structural shift if the ITC confirms injury. Steel The European Parliament gave final approval on Monday to sweeping new steel safeguard measures, replacing the WTO-era regime expiring on 30 June. Duty-free import quotas will be slashed 47% to 18.3 million tonnes annually, with out-of-quota tariffs doubling to 50%. The measures take effect from 1 July. Separately, Ibstock warned that challenging UK residential construction conditions will persist near-term, with higher energy and fuel costs extending into H2 2026. Smiths Group took a £10 million hit from the Middle East war in Q3 and cut its revenue growth forecast. Rare Earth Metals Australia's Arafura Rare Earths launched a A$350 million share placement backed by Gina Rinehart's Hancock Prospecting to fund its $1.6 billion Nolans project, set to become Australia's third-largest rare earths operation. The miner has secured financing from export credit agencies in the U.S., Canada, Germany and South Korea. Separately, EIT RawMaterials CEO Bernd Schaefer told Reuters that Europe must build its own pricing system for specialty metals and rare earths to break dependence on opaque Chinese benchmarks and unlock investment. Greenland Mines agreed to acquire Neo Performance's Greenland NdPr project for $35 million. Forex The euro is pinned near six-week lows around $1.161, weighed down by Thursday's dire PMI data and a strong dollar. The single currency managed to finish Thursday roughly flat only because the dollar retreated on Iran peace talk hopes in the U.S. afternoon session. The dollar index sits at 99.25, supported by safe-haven demand and rate-hike expectations. The yen is at 159 per dollar, keeping intervention risk elevated. Sterling faces headwinds from weak UK consumer confidence data. For European scrap traders, the combination of a soft euro and firm dollar-denominated LME prices means elevated local-currency metal costs persist. Watch Today Kevin Warsh's swearing-in as Fed chair at the White House — markets will parse any early signals on monetary policy direction. Germany's Ifo business sentiment survey for May and Q1 GDP detail are due this morning, alongside UK April retail sales. The University of Michigan's final May consumer sentiment and inflation expectations print lands at 1400 GMT. Any developments in U.S.-Iran talks over the weekend could gap markets on Monday.