Daily metals

Copper is trading at $13,449 as of Thursday 06:45, down 0.1% from Wednesday's official cash close of $13,465, as overnight U.S. strikes on Iran weighed on sentiment. Nickel is the biggest mover, falling 0.6% to $18,636 from Wednesday's $18,742 close. Tin has dropped 0.3% to $54,071, aluminium is off 0.3% at $3,625, and zinc has slipped 0.1% to $3,482. Lead is flat at $1,999. The complex is under broad pressure from a stronger dollar and renewed Middle East escalation that is stoking inflation fears and dimming the growth outlook. Macro & Geopolitics Fresh U.S. military strikes on an Iranian drone site near the Strait of Hormuz overnight have shattered hopes of an imminent peace deal, after Trump dismissed an Iranian state TV report of a framework agreement. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they targeted a U.S. airbase in response, and air raid sirens sounded across Kuwait. Brent crude rebounded above $96 and the dollar index firmed to 99.35. Markets now price a 50-50 chance of a Fed rate hike to 3.75–4.0% by year-end, with U.S. PCE inflation data due today expected to show headline at 3.8% and core at 3.3%. In Europe, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane stressed the need to prevent energy costs from feeding into inflation expectations, reinforcing the case for a June rate hike. EU industry chief Stéphane Séjourné told the FT that Brussels will broaden import quotas and tariffs against China to shield metals, chemicals and clean technology sectors. Base Metals Copper hit a one-week low in Asian trade as the dollar strengthened and oil surged, clouding the demand outlook. Independent trader Tai Wong noted that "dollar at highs and an impasse in Hormuz" is weighing on sentiment, expecting sideways trading pending a durable outcome. Aluminium fell to $3,619, retreating from Tuesday's four-year high of $3,707.50 as Iranian state TV's report of a draft Hormuz deal briefly eased supply fears — though the White House denied it. A new analysis highlights that Canada is diverting aluminium exports from the U.S. to Europe, where duty-paid premiums have surged 73% since the war began to a record $621/t, intensifying the transatlantic tug-of-war for low-carbon supply. LME available aluminium stocks fell to a one-year low of 259,625 tonnes, while on-warrant copper stocks dropped to 271,575 tonnes, the lowest since mid-March. Precious Metals Gold sank to a two-month low near $4,370 as the overnight Iran strikes boosted the dollar and oil, fuelling rate-hike expectations that weigh on the non-yielding metal. Fed Governor Lisa Cook said she is prepared to hike rates if tariffs, the Iran war and AI-related investment keep pushing prices higher. Spot silver fell 3% to $72.40, while platinum hit a near one-month low at $1,891. Commerzbank noted that any de-escalation in the Middle East would be positive for gold, and still expects prices to rise by year-end. Steel Chinese coking coal rebounded on Thursday as supply fears resurfaced after 113 coal mines in Shanxi with 125 million tonnes of combined capacity remain suspended following the Liushenyu mine disaster that killed 82 people. Shanghai steel benchmarks were mixed, with rebar and hot-rolled coil edging higher but stainless steel slipping. In Europe, the EU's new steel safeguard regime — cutting tariff-free quotas to 18.3 million tonnes and doubling out-of-quota duties to 50% — is set to take effect on 1 July, replacing the expiring WTO safeguard. Separately, Eni denied reports it is part of a consortium bidding for Italy's former ILVA steelworks, saying it is only exploring potential gas supply arrangements. Rare Earth Metals German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche, visiting Beijing with executives from BASF, Thyssenkrupp and Siemens Energy, said she discussed "reliable access" to critical minerals for German companies with Chinese counterparts. China's Commerce Minister Wang Wentao pushed back against "protectionist" EU trade curbs but expressed willingness to expand cooperation. The visit comes as EU Commissioners prepare to debate broader China trade measures on 29 May, with metals explicitly flagged as a sector at risk from Chinese competition. Forex The euro hovered near a six-week low at $1.161, under pressure from the safe-haven dollar bid triggered by the latest Middle East escalation. Money markets now price the ECB deposit rate reaching 2.6% by December, with an 80% probability of a June hike from the current 2.0%. ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said this week that a June rate increase is needed regardless of peace deal progress. The yen weakened to 159.57 per dollar, nearing the 160 intervention threshold. The dollar index held steady around 99.3, supported by shifting Fed expectations toward tighter policy. Watch Today U.S. PCE inflation data for April lands at 14:30 CET — the first major inflation print under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, with consensus at 3.8% headline and 3.3% core. Also due: U.S. Q1 GDP second estimate, durable goods and weekly jobless claims. ECB President Christine Lagarde, board member Isabel Schnabel and Chief Economist Philip Lane are all scheduled to speak. Any further developments in the U.S.-Iran standoff will dominate risk sentiment.