Daily metals

This Morning Base metals are uniformly below Friday's official close in Monday trading at 08:00 CET. Lead and nickel show the largest declines, both down 1.0% at $1,821/t and $16,600/t respectively, while copper is 0.9% lower at $13,378/t. Aluminium and tin have each eased 0.4%, to $3,138.50/t and $52,720/t. Zinc is the most resilient, slipping 0.2% to $3,518/t. Macro & Geopolitics Escalation between the US and Iran is setting a defensive tone, with restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz lifting Brent above $90 a barrel. The energy shock is reviving inflation concerns and strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve may tighten policy again, pushing long-dated US Treasury yields above 5%. European markets face the combined pressure of higher imported energy costs and weaker technology shares. The ECB meets on Thursday and is expected to hold rates at 2.25% following June's hike, although markets are positioning for another increase in September. This backdrop is limiting appetite for growth-sensitive industrial metals. Base Metals Copper retains the strongest fundamental support despite trading below Friday's close. Chinese refined-copper imports reached a nine-month high in June at 281,307 tonnes, the Yangshan premium climbed to a 14-month peak of $100/t on July 17, and more than half of LME warehouse copper was earmarked for withdrawal. Supply concerns have also increased after South32 reported weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter output from Sierra Gorda in Chile, missing market estimates as inclement weather hampered mining operations. Elsewhere, China's June data showed sharply higher refined nickel imports (up 57.5% year-on-year) and lead imports (up 1,747.8% year-on-year) but steep declines in refined zinc (down 84.9% year-on-year) and tin (down 31.2% year-on-year) purchases. Aluminium scrap imports fell 14.6% year on year. For now, tighter copper availability is being outweighed by oil-driven inflation fears and weaker global risk sentiment. Precious Metals Gold is holding near $4,019/oz as geopolitical demand competes with rising bond yields and expectations of further US monetary tightening. Brent's move above $90 has reinforced inflation concerns, but higher interest rates increase the cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Silver is outperforming, gaining 1.7% to about $56.87/oz. Platinum is broadly unchanged near $1,592/oz, while palladium has edged 0.1% higher to roughly $1,249/oz. Steel China imported 35,692 tonnes of steel scrap in June, an 84.3% increase from a year earlier. The rise suggests improved Chinese interest in overseas recycled feedstock, although the absolute volume remains modest compared with the country's domestic scrap market. For European suppliers, the data offer a cautiously positive demand signal rather than evidence of a major change in trade flows. Higher oil and freight costs remain a risk for international scrap margins. Forex The euro is steady near $1.144, remaining within the narrow range seen over the past week. This stability is limiting immediate currency-related changes in the euro cost of dollar-denominated metals, although higher energy prices could weigh on the region's trade balance and growth outlook. Sterling is firm around $1.346, while the dollar is close to a 40-year high against the yen. Rising US yields continue to support the dollar and could make imported commodities more expensive if the euro weakens later in the week.