Metals Daily

This Morning Copper is trading at $13,033 cash / $13,076 three-month as of Tuesday morning, with the lowest levels up 0.3% from Monday's official close. Tin is the standout mover, surging 1.3% ($605) to $48,595 cash, while lead has added 1.5% to $1,917. Nickel is firmer by 0.3% at $17,524, zinc has gained 0.6% to $3,318, and aluminium is the only metal in the red, slipping 0.1% to $3,603. The complex is broadly supported by a softer dollar and hopes that U.S.-Iran dialogue may yet produce a resolution, though the Strait of Hormuz blockade and China's looming sulphuric acid export ban continue to underpin supply-side anxiety. Macro & Geopolitics The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports took effect on Monday, but markets are trading on hope rather than fear after sources indicated Washington and Tehran have left the door open to further talks. Oil settled below $100 — Brent at $99.36 — after spiking above $102 intraday, and has since dipped further in Asian trade on Tuesday. Wall Street rallied, with the S&P 500 recouping all losses since the war began on February 28. The dollar fell to a six-week low (DXY 98.3), boosting euro-denominated metal values. Hungary's watershed election, ousting Viktor Orbán in favour of the pro-EU Tisza party, sent the forint to a four-year high and raised hopes of €19 billion in frozen EU funds being released. Markets now price less than a 20% chance of a Fed rate cut this year, a stark reversal from pre-war expectations. Base Metals Aluminium hit a four-year high of $3,617 on Monday as the Hormuz blockade revived fears over Gulf smelter supply — the region accounts for roughly 9% of global output, and EGA has warned full restoration of its Al Taweelah smelter could take up to a year. The LME cash-to-three-month aluminium spread surged to $87.25, its widest since 2007. Copper found support from rising Yangshan premiums, which jumped 76% in a week to $74/t — the highest since June 2025 — signalling firmer Chinese import appetite, even as Q1 unwrought copper imports fell 14.2% year-on-year. China's planned sulphuric acid export ban from May is a major new headwind for copper and nickel production globally, threatening SX-EW output in Chile and HPAL operations in Indonesia. DRC miners are already cutting chemical use and considering output reductions after leaching chemical orders were cancelled in April. Indonesia revised its nickel ore pricing formula to include iron, cobalt and chromium content, effective April 15, adding cost pressure. Tin's rally reflects tight supply; Indonesia revised February refined tin exports sharply higher to 8,631 tonnes from an initial 3,927 tonnes. The Comex copper arbitrage has reopened, with a $110/t premium drawing South American metal toward the U.S. ahead of Commerce Secretary Lutnick's June tariff update. Precious Metals Gold rebounded 0.6% to $4,768 in early Tuesday trade after hitting a near one-week low on Monday, supported by a weaker dollar and easing oil prices that tempered inflation fears. Markets now see a 29% chance of a U.S. rate cut this year, up from 12% last week. Palladium gained 3% on Monday to $1,566. Analysts at SP Angel described the war-induced selloff — gold is down over 10% since February 28 — as healthy for longer-term prospects, with speculative positioning reduced. Near-term price action is likely to remain choppy and headline-driven by U.S.-Iran developments. Steel The EU reached a landmark preliminary deal on Monday to nearly halve steel imports and double out-of-quota tariffs to 50%, replacing the current 25% safeguard regime expiring June 30. Tariff-free imports will be capped at 18.3 million tonnes per year — a 47% cut versus 2024 — with the measures designed to push EU capacity utilisation from 65% to 80%. Russian steel imports are to be phased out by September 2028. Separately, Danieli won a €450 million contract from Marcegaglia for a new steelmaking and flat-rolling plant in Fos-sur-Mer, France, targeting over 2 million tonnes of liquid steel and up to 3 million tonnes of hot-rolled coils. China's March steel exports fell 12.6% year-on-year to 9.14 million tonnes as Hormuz disruptions hit Gulf-bound shipments. Rare Earth Metals China's rare earth exports plunged 27.5% year-on-year in March to 4,111 tonnes, though Q1 volumes were still up 2.8% at 14,579 tonnes. The EU launched its critical minerals joint purchasing platform on Monday as part of the RESourceEU strategy, opening submissions for buyers seeking rare earths, battery and defence raw materials, with first match-ups expected in September. Australia's Hastings Technology Metals secured a monazite feedstock supply deal for its Thai hydrometallurgical plant, positioning it to supply rare earth chlorides to European, U.S. and Asian customers from Q4 2026. Forex The dollar index slid to a six-week low of 98.3 on Monday as risk appetite improved on U.S.-Iran dialogue hopes, leaving the euro trading around $1.176. Sterling touched a six-week peak at $1.3514. The Hungarian forint surged 3% to a four-year high of 362.85 per euro following Orbán's election defeat, with markets pricing in potential EU fund releases. Rising oil prices have prompted traders to price in nearly three ECB rate hikes by year-end, up from two last week, a hawkish shift that is lending structural support to the euro. Watch Today U.S. March PPI data is due at 14:30 CET. Earnings from JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup will test how banks are navigating the war's fallout. Multiple Fed speakers are scheduled, including Goolsbee, Barr, Collins, Barkin and Paulson. March CPI reports from Finland, Sweden and Spain are also due. Any shift in U.S.-Iran rhetoric could dominate price action across the complex.