Daily metals

What's Moving Markets?Global equities were higher as investors largely shrugged off concerns over the government shutdown and turned their attention to corporate developments. The shutdown entered its second week with no resolution in sight, darkening the economic outlook, delaying key data, and adding pressure on lawmakers to strike a deal. Commodity markets continued to benefit from a risk-on tone across markets as bullish sentiment shows no sign of waning. Confidence of further Fed rate cuts also spurred buying across the sector. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries fell by 2bp to 4.12%, while the USD index was 0.5% stronger at 99.Fed Cautious on Inflation: Most Fed officials noted that it was appropriate to move the target range for the federal funds rate toward a more neutral level, as they judged that downside risks to employment had increased while upside risks to inflation had either diminished or remained unchanged. However, a majority still emphasized that the risks to the inflation outlook remained tilted to the upside, according to minutes from the Sep 2025 FOMC meeting. In addition, most participants considered it likely that further policy easing would be appropriate over the remainder of the year, with around half of officials anticipating two additional interest rate cuts by the end of 2025.What an extraordinary day for financial markets: Spot gold breachedthe $4,000 level at 03:00 BST. Silver climbed more than 3% toalmost reach $50, underpinned by robust physical demand from the solar andelectronics sectors, with the Silver Institute forecasting a global supplydeficit for the fifth straight year in 2025. Gold’s move is far more than speculativefroth; it is a rational repricing of global trust and a warning about theprecarious state of financial markets. It reflects a deeper shift in investorpsychology and global capital flows. YTD gains now stand near 52%, while silver andplatinum have rallied 64% and 86%, respectively. Palladium,though less in focus, has added nearly 50%. The latest rally in gold isn’tabout a flight out of the USD. It looks more like it’s a flight out of all G10currencies, as fears of inflation and currency debasement grow. Globalphysically backed gold ETFs recorded their largest monthly inflow in Sep,resulting in the strongest quarter on record of $26bn.The CzechNational Bank gold reserves increased by ~2t in Sep, acontinuation of its steady accumulation. Its gold reserves now total 67t,almost 16t higher than at the end of last year.Base metals keep climbing - copper neared $10,800, aluminium and zinc surge, despite a firmer USD and looming US recession fears. The ICSG has forecast after its meeting yesterday: a surplus of about 178kt for 2025, slightly lower than Apr estimate, and a deficit of about 150kt in 2026, from a 209kt-surplus forecast in Apr. This shift to deficit is attributed to lower than previously anticipated refined copper production that will be constrained by the lower availability of copper concentrate, the ICSG noted.Iron ore remained stuck in a tight range. China has unveiled a two-year work plan to stabilize its giant steel sector, setting out measures to curb overcapacity, shore up profitability and accelerate a long-term transition toward greener and more technologically advanced production. China’s 2025–2026 plan targets about 4% annual value-added growth while shifting focus from scale to quality and efficiency. Capacity discipline tightens with outdated mills to be phased out and greater push for EAF, hydrogen metallurgy and ultra-low emissions upgrades.