Daily metals

At 07:45 CET on Thursday, five of the six base metals were below Wednesday’s official closes. Aluminium was the largest decliner, down 1.0% at $3,277 a tonne, followed by zinc, which fell 0.9% to $3,723.50. Copper eased 0.5% to $14,062.50, tin lost 0.3% to $55,380 and nickel slipped 0.1% to $16,720. Lead bucked the trend, rising 0.7% to $1,879.50. Macro & Geopolitics U.S. consumer prices rose 0.1% month on month in July and 3.4% year on year, reducing the market-implied probability of a September Federal Reserve rate increase to about 40%. The resulting support for risk assets was tempered by a firmer dollar and persistent uncertainty over shipping through the Gulf. Brent crude retreated towards $88 a barrel after forecasters lowered their global demand projections, while U.S.-Iran negotiations remained deadlocked and the Strait of Hormuz dispute unresolved. European equity futures pointed higher before the open. Meanwhile, Japan’s 7.2% wholesale inflation reading strengthened expectations that the Bank of Japan could raise rates in September. Base Metals A firmer dollar pressured the complex, but copper remained underpinned by falling LME inventories and continuing flows of refined metal into the United States. Chinese demand was less supportive: the Yangshan import premium fell to a four-week low. Supply constraints remained significant, with China’s August refined copper output forecast to decline 2.83% year on year. Codelco expects production from the delayed Andes Norte project at its El Teniente mine to begin in 2029. Aluminium faced additional selling as alternative Gulf export routes and the expected recovery of damaged smelting capacity improved the supply outlook. Australia’s A$2.5 billion long-term power package for Rio Tinto’s Tomago aluminium smelter is intended to keep the facility operating beyond 2028 and reduce its closure risk. Precious Metals Gold consolidated near $4,409 an ounce after reaching its highest level since June 5, supported by reduced expectations of a September Fed rate increase. Traders were waiting for U.S. producer-price data before extending positions. Silver added 0.3% to around $65.47, while platinum declined 0.4% to $1,749.70 and palladium fell 0.5% to $1,362.10. Renewed energy-price pressure could ultimately revive expectations of tighter monetary policy. Steel Thyssenkrupp raised the lower end of its 2026 adjusted operating-profit forecast to €600 million from €500 million, citing stronger contributions from its steel, materials-trading and marine operations, as well as cost reductions. Third-quarter sales rose 8% to €8.79 billion, but adjusted operating profit of €183 million missed the €207 million company poll estimate and order intake fell 24%. The group still intends to spin off a majority stake in its steel division and plans a capital-markets day for the division in late September. Separately, the Singapore Exchange plans to launch coking-coal futures and swaps in September, subject to regulatory approval, using the Dow Jones McCloskey Australian FOB Second-Tier Hard Coking Coal Index as the reference index. Forex The dollar index approached 100 as solid demand for U.S. Treasuries supported the currency despite reduced expectations for Fed tightening. The euro remained near $1.152, while the yen traded around 159.3 per dollar. Expectations of a September Bank of Japan rate increase limited further yen weakness. U.S. producer-price data could determine whether the dollar’s recovery extends or the euro regains ground. Watch Today UK second-quarter GDP and June industrial and manufacturing output are due during the European morning. U.S. producer prices and weekly jobless claims follow at 14:30 CEST, with the inflation release the main immediate risk for metals, currencies and interest-rate expectations. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin are also scheduled to speak.