Theme of the Day: Consensus price forecasts – Gold, silver prices surge to new highs.

· Gold, silver, platinum and copper prices reached new historic peaks in Jan, while most other industrial metals prices hit multiyear highs. Investors' flight to safety amid a fraught geopolitical and macroeconomic landscape — in conjunction with concerns over supply shortages — sustained upside momentum across metals markets for much of the month. Consensus price targets across 2026–30 were upgraded almost across the board, with a sharp boost for precious metals but limited gains for the nickel market as it continues to grapple with persistent structural oversupply. · The Fed left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% on 28 Jan, citing "solid" economic growth. While the Fed did not signal future policy adjustments, market participants anticipate one to two rate cuts in 2026. Powell's term ends in May, with former Fed governor Kevin Warsh nominated to be successor, pending Senate confirmation. As China sets in motion its 15th Five‑Year Plan, new stimulus measures may bolster domestic demand, driving support for industrial metals prices. · Investors remain drawn to gold amid concerns about Fed independence, escalating geopolitical risks stemming from US' tensions with Venezuela, Greenland and Iran, and a delicate global macroeconomic outlook. A prolonged bout of USD depreciation spurred record inflows into gold ETFs, while ongoing de‑dollarization efforts keep central bank accumulation robust. Gold's bull run is expected to extend into a fifth consecutive year in 2026, although market correction and an improving global economic growth outlook pose downside risks. Gold consensus price forecasts were upgraded 6.1% on average across 2026–30. Silver mirrored gold's dramatic rise and correction. Investors remain optimistic, with consensus price forecasts raised 30.8% on average across the next five years. Strong ETF inflows and surging retail demand in Asia and the Middle East continue to strain physical silver availability. Local shortages have reportedly pushed premiums above the London benchmark. Silver also faces a long‑standing structural deficit, with demand supported by its dual role as a safe‑haven metal and an industrial input in electronics, renewable energy technologies and electric vehicles. Macroeconomic and geopolitical factors that support the gold price also drive upside momentum for platinum group metals, but ongoing supply-demand imbalances add fundamental support. Consensus price forecasts across 2026–30 were lifted by an average of 11.7% for platinum and 12.6% for palladium. · Although China's construction and property slowdown is pressuring demand, tight concentrate supply, expectations of Fed rate cuts, and continued metal inflows into the US have kept copper prices firm. Copper is increasingly being priced relative to gold and silver, signalling further upside potential, although high prices may suppress consumption. Consensus price forecasts were raised 3.3% on average across 2026–29 and downgraded 0.7% for 2030. Zinc consensus price forecasts were upgraded 0.6% for 2026 but lowered 1.6% on average across 2027–30. Consensus aluminium price targets were raised 1.4% on average across 2026–29 and lowered 0.3% for 2030. Consensus nickel price outlooks were lifted 0.5% on average across the next five years. Consensus cobalt price outlooks across 2026–30 were raised 6.3% on average. Consensus iron ore price targets were raised an average of 0.6% across 2026–30.