Metals Daily

This MorningLead gained 1.5% on this Thursday morning. Aluminium lifted more than 0.5%. Copper, nickel and zinc all lifted a little bit. Only tin remained pretty much unchanged overnight. What's Moving Markets?Global equities moved higher. Traders remain focused on corporate earnings and trade developments, particularly after President Trump announced increased tariffs targeting countries that purchase energy from Russia. He also signalled that new levies on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports will be unveiled “within the next week or so". Easing geopolitical risks weighed on the oil market. Rising inventories weighed on the copper price as US tariff bets reverse. Gold gained on expectations of Fed rate cuts. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries rose by 2bp to 4.24%, while the USD index was 0.5% weaker at 98.3.S&P Global published “The Future of Copper: Will the Looming Supply Gap Short-circuit the Energy Transition?” Yes, it will, unless we massively rethink how we permit, build, and sustain new supply. The study projects global copper demand to double by 2035, hitting 50Mt, more than all the copper ever mined from 1900 to now. That’s what’s needed for the clean energy transition to stay on track. Now here’s the catch: at current rates, we’re heading into a 10Mt supply deficit. That’s 20% of expected demand, gone. Even if we go full throttle on recycling and squeeze every last tonne out of existing operations, the gap still looms. Why? Because it takes 16 years to build a new mine. Unless we change there’s no way we will build new mines fast enough to meet the demand. Copper isn’t just for wires and coins anymore—it’s the backbone of electrification. From EVs to wind, solar, batteries, and grid upgrades, it’s showing up everywhere. The bottom line? Without new mines — and a big rethink of how we enable them — Net Zero by 2050 is just a marketing slogan.Precious metals drifted lower, but gold was supported by growing expectations of a more dovish monetary policy continued to support the appeal of the non-interest-bearing metal. Signs of economic weakness in the world’s largest economy have strengthened expectations that the Fed will ease policy at its Sep meeting, with markets now pricing in a 90% chance of a rate cut.Base metals ended with gains in line with equity markets. China's Politburo meeting showed that the policy stance will remain supportive while continuing to emphasise the recent focus on building domestic demand and supporting the hardest hit exporters. All eyes will now be on China's Fourth Plenum and the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan. Copper’s downside was limited despite more than 14kt of the metal delivered into exchange warehouses overnight taking the total to 141.9kt. All eyes are on Codelco's El Teniente mine and how long operations will be suspended. A tariff on copper cathode appears to still be on the cards longer term. The White House has stated that the US is still exploring the possibility of 15% tariffs starting in 2026 and increasing to 30% in 2027 for copper cathode. It has also led to the LME/CME arbitrage continuing to be broad, but only on the forward curve - with the arbitrage at around $660/t for Aug 2028 (vs. $30/t for Aug 2025). Copper concentrates treatment & refining charges continue their 5-week recovery streak. Fastmarkets' copper concentrates TC index, cif Asia Pacific was calculated at -$62.20/t on 1 Aug, up by $0.90/t vs -$63.10/t on 25 Jul. Japan’s Mitsubishi Materials will reduce copper concentrate processing at its Onahama Smelting and Refining business owing to factors affecting copper smelting, including reduced availability of concentrate, it said.Iron ore iron ore remained resilient and continues to hover around the $100/t level. While current market dynamics and future outlooks generally suggest downward pressure on iron ore prices, the market has historically demonstrated resilience against such fundamental factors. The Chinese steel industry is gradually tightening due to capacity reductions in the least efficient segments of the supply chain. This tightening is supporting steel prices, which, in turn, positively influence iron ore, despite sector-specific supply-demand imbalances.