Theme of the Day: Copper Market Forecast 2026/2027 - ICSG

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) met in Lisbon, Portugal, on 23rd Apr 2026. At the meeting of the Statistical Committee, the ICSG's view of the world balance of refined copper production and use was developed. 2026 world mine production growth has been revised down to 1.6% from the 2.3% anticipated in the Group’s Oct 2025 forecasts, mainly reflecting downward revisions made to the DRC, Chile and Indonesia growth. Output at Grasberg and Kamoa mines continues to be constrained as a result of the major incidents that occurred in 2025. Global growth is mainly attributed to additional production from the ramp-up of Oyu Tolgoi (Mongolia) and Malmyz mine (Russia), the expansion at Julong (China) and Almalyk (Uzbekistan) mines, the processing of stockpile ore at Cobre Panama and an expected recovery from the previous year’s constrained output at several mines. A higher growth of 2.3% is forecast for 2027, supported by the continued ramp-up of new/expanded capacity in a number of countries, an expected improvement in Chilean and Zambian output and a recovery of operational rates in Indonesia and the DRC. In both years, a series of smaller expansions and the start-up of some small/medium-sized mines will also contribute to the increase in global production, notably in Angola, Botswana, Brazil, DRC, Ecuador, Eritrea, the Philippines, Greece, Mongolia, Turkey and the US. In 2026, world refined copper production is expected to rise by 0.4%. Although refined production will continue to benefit from new and ramp-up capacity, primary electrolytic refined production growth is expected to be limited by the constrained availability of concentrates, partially offsetting growth in SX-EW and secondary (from scrap) output. In 2027, global refined output is forecast to grow by 3% as a consequence of expected improvement in concentrate availability and planned expansion of SX-EW and secondary production capacity. Primary refined production is forecast to rise by 2.3% and secondary refined production (from scrap) is expected to grow by 5.7%. In view of uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East and disruption to trade flows, which are likely to weaken the global economic outlook and negatively impact copper demand, refined copper usage growth rates have been revised down compared to the Group’s Oct 2025 forecast. Global refined usage growth for 2026 is now anticipated to be 1.6% (previously 2.1%). Chinese usage is expected to rise by about 1.9% and usage in the rest of the world by 1.3%. In 2027, world refined copper usage is expected to grow by 2%. Asia will continue to be the main driver of global growth, with demand in other key copper-using regions remaining subdued, notably in the EU and Japan. In general, however, global usage is expected to continue to be supported by improvements in manufacturing activity in some of the key copper end-use sectors, continued demand from energy transition, urbanisation, digitalisation (data centres) and the development of new semis production capacity in a number of other countries. ICSG recognises that global market balances can vary from those projected owing to numerous factors, notably the current conflict in the Middle East, that could alter projections for both production and usage. In this context, it should be noted that actual market balance outcomes have, on recent occasions, deviated from ICSG market balance forecasts due to unforeseen developments. In developing its global market balance, ICSG uses an apparent demand calculation for China that does not consider changes in unreported stocks (State Reserve Bureau (SRB), producer, consumer, merchant/trader, bonded), which can be significant during periods of stocking or de-stocking, and which can markedly alter global supply-demand balances. Apparent copper demand for China is based only on reported data (production + net trade +/- SHFE stock changes). For 2026, a surplus of ~96kt is anticipated, which compares to the deficit of 150kt forecast in Oct. This shift to surplus is attributed to lower than previously anticipated copper usage and higher secondary refined production. It expects the market to see a higher surplus of ~377kt in 2027.