Daily metals

Copper is trading at $13,238 at 07:00 today, up 1.4% from Tuesday's official close of $13,059, buoyed by Trump's signals of a possible Iran peace deal and China's return from the Labour Day holiday. Tin is the standout performer at $51,823, surging 4.5% above Tuesday's close of $49,577. Nickel has jumped 1.6% to $19,754, zinc is 1.5% firmer at $3,404, and lead has edged up 0.6% to $1,982. Aluminium is essentially flat at $3,589, barely changed from Tuesday's $3,590 close, as hopes of easing Gulf supply disruptions temper the metal's war premium.

Trump announced a pause in Operation Epic Fury — the U.S. military effort to force open the Strait of Hormuz — citing "great progress" toward a comprehensive agreement with Iran. Brent crude tumbled below $109, its second consecutive daily decline, easing inflation fears that have dogged markets since the conflict began in late February. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record closes on Tuesday, powered by AI-driven earnings beats, with 83% of reporting companies topping EPS estimates. France has convened an emergency online G7 meeting for Thursday to discuss breaking China's grip on critical materials ahead of the Evian summit in June. The G7 is also in talks to establish a permanent secretariat — potentially housed at the IEA or OECD in Paris — to coordinate critical minerals stockpiling and supply diversification. The RBA hiked rates for a third time this year, warning of sticky inflation from the oil shock.

China's return from the five-day holiday injected fresh liquidity, with Shanghai copper up 1.7% and tin futures surging over 6%. Trump's Iran peace signals are the dominant catalyst, reducing the geopolitical risk premium that has weighed on industrial metals since late February. LME copper bounced from a three-week low of $12,780 hit on Tuesday, with analysts at Capital.com noting risk is "skewed to the upside" given structural AI-driven demand. Aluminium's muted response reflects a nuanced outlook: Standard Chartered expects Gulf output won't recover to pre-war levels until 2028, even if the Strait reopens, due to shipping backlogs. Indonesia's March aluminium exports more than doubled to a 28-month high, including a rare 18,500-ton cargo to the U.S. from the new Weda Bay smelter. COMEX copper continues to trade at a roughly $120/ton premium to LME, pulling metal stateside ahead of a July tariff decision. Sulphuric acid economics dominated LME Week Asia in Hong Kong, with spot copper concentrate treatment charges negative for 16 consecutive months.

Gold extended its rebound, rising 2% to $4,647 in Asian trading, as the dollar weakened and oil's retreat eased inflation anxieties. The metal had touched a five-week low near $4,500 on Monday before bargain hunters stepped in. Analysts at OANDA noted that any re-escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions could trigger profit-taking by short-term speculators. Silver jumped nearly 3% to $75.01, platinum gained 2.4% to near $2,000, and palladium rose 2.6%. Markets await Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls for signals on whether the Fed will hold rates steady.

Heidelberg Materials flagged rising energy costs from the Middle East conflict, though the cement maker confirmed its 2026 outlook and plans to offset costs through surcharges. Steelmaker Ternium reported Q1 net profit of $372 million on sales of $3.93 billion and guided for higher Q2 EBITDA. Klöckner posted Q1 EBITDA of €46 million, up from €42 million a year earlier, as Worthington Steel's takeover secured 61.9% of shares. Shanghai steel benchmarks rallied on China's return, with rebar up 1.25% and wire rod spiking 5.3%. Derichebourg signed a binding agreement to acquire Scholz Recycling, consolidating European scrap processing capacity.

France unveiled a strategy to rebuild a domestic rare earths and permanent magnets supply chain, targeting 100% of European heavy rare earth oxide demand by 2030. Finance Minister Lescure drew parallels to the 1970s creation of the IEA, proposing G7 cooperation to counter China's market dominance. Lynas CEO Amanda Lacaze confirmed that new U.S. and EU procurement regulations are already shifting customer purchasing decisions away from Chinese suppliers. The IEA held a Brussels workshop on mineral stockpiling with participants including Glencore, General Motors, and the European Commission.

The dollar index slipped 0.1% to 98.24, snapping a three-day winning streak as Iran peace hopes reduced safe-haven demand. The euro firmed to $1.1724 and sterling rose to $1.3577, both up around 0.3%. The Australian dollar climbed 0.7% to $0.7240, its highest since June 2022, supported by the RBA rate hike and improved risk appetite. The yen remained under intervention watch at 157.82 per dollar after Monday's sharp spike to 155.69 prompted speculation of Tokyo action. LatAm currencies hit record highs, with Brazil's real at its strongest in over two years.

European services PMIs for April are due this morning — France at 09:50 CET, Germany at 09:55, eurozone composite at 10:00, and UK at 10:30. Earnings from Arm Holdings, Novo Nordisk, BMW, Infineon, and Equinor could move sector sentiment. ECB board members Buch, Lane, and Cipollone are all scheduled to speak. U.S. ADP payrolls at 14:15 CET will set the tone ahead of Friday's non-farm payrolls.