Metals Daily

This Morning Base metals opened mixed on LME screens with liquidity thin — US markets are closed for Presidents' Day and mainland China remains shut until February 24 for the extended Lunar New Year break. Three-month copper slipped 0.8% to $12,736, aluminium eased 0.3% to $3,034, and nickel was marginally lower at $17,090. Zinc edged down to $3,269, while lead was steady with cash at $1,914. Tin stood out, up 1.4% to $46,295, consolidating above mid-$46,000/t after recent volatility. Base metals: macro caution meets uneven fundamentals Copper's decline reflects ongoing pressure from rising inventories — global exchange-monitored stocks topped 1 million tonnes last week for the first time since 2003 — and a fragile demand outlook with China away. Prices remain historically elevated but lack fresh buying conviction. Aluminium drifted toward $3,030/t. US tariff rhetoric continues to reverberate — delivered aluminium costs for American buyers have surged above $5,200/t since tariffs doubled — but the market is treating this as a premium and flow story rather than a structural hit to global balances. Nickel held just above $17,000/t, range-bound in the absence of a near-term catalyst. Indonesia's quota cuts — Weda Bay capped at 12 million wet metric tonnes from 42 million, national production reduced to 260–270 million from 379 million tonnes — remain the dominant medium-term driver. Zinc was marginally softer at $3,269. Lead was the relative stabiliser at $1,914 cash, supported by its domestically driven demand profile. Tin continued to outperform, though prices remain over 20% below January's record $59,040. The speculative unwind triggered by SHFE restrictions on high-frequency trading may be easing. Supply uncertainty from Indonesia's closure of around 1,000 illegal mines and the metal's sensitivity to electronics and AI-related demand keep volatility elevated. Cash tin above three-month signals persistent physical tightness. Precious metals: supported, but not breaking out Gold and silver were steadier after profit-taking, supported by lower yields and a softer dollar but restrained by the US holiday and thin Asian participation. Friday's softer-than-expected CPI — headline inflation at 2.4%, down from 2.7% and below the 2.5% consensus — has boosted rate-cut expectations. Markets now price two 25bp cuts this year, starting in June. FOMC minutes from the January meeting, at which rates were held at 3.50–3.75%, are due Wednesday. Rare earths: policy risk remains embedded Little spot price movement, but China's tighter export controls on strategic minerals continue to underpin risk premia. NdPr prices have surged roughly 40% in 2026 to their highest since July 2022. CME Group is developing the first exchange-traded NdPr futures contract — no launch date announced.